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Category: Economy

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$7.5 trillion of treasuries and $2.4 trillion of new mortgage debt burnt a hole in banks’ pockets when interest rates rose. Is the system now too big to save?
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$7.5 trillion of treasuries and $2.4 trillion of new mortgage debt burnt a hole in banks’ pockets when interest rates rose. Is the system now too big to save?

By Robert Romano Since the beginning of 2020, marketable U.S. treasuries have increased by $7.5…

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Posted on 20MarSeptember 12, 2023
2023 Bank Crisis: The bank run is on bank stocks, not bank deposits per se. Congress made certain of that in 2010. The depositors are the hostages.
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2023 Bank Crisis: The bank run is on bank stocks, not bank deposits per se. Congress made certain of that in 2010. The depositors are the hostages.

  By Robert Romano Despite taking action to put Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank…

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Posted on 16MarSeptember 12, 2023
Inflation still elevated at 6.0 percent past year as the Fed eyes more interest rate hikes to tame inflation, but can the banks take it?
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Inflation still elevated at 6.0 percent past year as the Fed eyes more interest rate hikes to tame inflation, but can the banks take it?

By Robert Romano Consumer inflation the past 12 months has increased 6.0 percent, down from…

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Posted on 14MarSeptember 12, 2023
Down the Rabbit Hole: The Fed just guaranteed $230 billion of uninsured deposits at SVB Bank and Signature Bank. There are $1 trillion of uninsured deposits out of $20 trillion nationwide.
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Down the Rabbit Hole: The Fed just guaranteed $230 billion of uninsured deposits at SVB Bank and Signature Bank. There are $1 trillion of uninsured deposits out of $20 trillion nationwide.

By Robert Romano Amid a spectacular banking crash over the weekend, the Federal Reserve and…

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Posted on 13MarSeptember 12, 2023
Recession soon? White House projects just 0.6 percent growth in real GDP in 2023, more than 2 million jobs lost by 2024 as unemployment rises to 4.6 percent.
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Recession soon? White House projects just 0.6 percent growth in real GDP in 2023, more than 2 million jobs lost by 2024 as unemployment rises to 4.6 percent.

By Robert Romano The White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) in the now-released…

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Posted on 10MarSeptember 12, 2023
As 10-year, 2-year inversion reaches new lows in cycle, peak employment persists as Fed hopes inflation will come down all by itself
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As 10-year, 2-year inversion reaches new lows in cycle, peak employment persists as Fed hopes inflation will come down all by itself

By Robert Romano The spread between 10-year treasuries and 2-year treasuries, often a reliable recession…

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Posted on 03MarSeptember 12, 2023
Unadjusted unemployment continued claims up 755,000 since Oct. 2022 after peak inflation. When will unemployment begin to tick upward? 
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Unadjusted unemployment continued claims up 755,000 since Oct. 2022 after peak inflation. When will unemployment begin to tick upward? 

By Robert Romano Non-seasonally adjusted unemployment continued claims have steadily increased by 755,000 since Oct.…

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Posted on 20FebSeptember 12, 2023
As inflation remains elevated at 6.4 percent, there is still a bumpy road ahead for the U.S. economy
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As inflation remains elevated at 6.4 percent, there is still a bumpy road ahead for the U.S. economy

By Robert Romano Consumer inflation remains elevated 6.4 percent over the past 12 months, with…

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Posted on 15FebSeptember 12, 2023
If Biden won’t tell Congress how he’s going to spend the debt ceiling increase, why should he expect Congress to hand him a blank check?
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If Biden won’t tell Congress how he’s going to spend the debt ceiling increase, why should he expect Congress to hand him a blank check?

By Robert Romano “President Biden’s failure to submit his budget to Congress by the deadline…

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Posted on 07FebSeptember 12, 2023
Fed keeps hiking interest rates while unemployment remains low, but is the U.S. economy in for a hard landing or a soft one?
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Fed keeps hiking interest rates while unemployment remains low, but is the U.S. economy in for a hard landing or a soft one?

By Robert Romano The Federal Reserve has once again hiked the federal funds rate that…

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Posted on 02FebSeptember 12, 2023

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